OK, so I’ve spent the week reading the early Platonic
dialogues (Apology, Euthyprho, Crito,
Phaedo, Gorgias, and Phaedrus)
and trying to decide whether or not I ought to have a bilateral pulmonary resection
(i.e., a surgery to remove the masses on my lungs). This decision, and the week
as a whole, has been fairly stressful, as I’ve struggled to find clear guidance
on what the “correct” choice would be in this scenario. In any case, my
waffling about this decision all week struck me as being very Platonic, at
least insofar as Socrates’ impressionable interlocutors can be called
“Platonic.” Like Phaedrus, Euthyphro, and all the rest of them, I’ve seemed to
jump readily (and enthusiastically!) from the idea that I absolutely must get
surgery to the idea that I absolutely must not get surgery, and then back
again.
On the basis of this (and because it seems like a good way
to distract myself), I’ve written you all a Platonic dialogue in which Socrates
and I consider the ins and outs of having such a surgery. All the factual
information here should be accurate, and most of it reflects things I have been
told by various “experts”—my oncologist, my surgeon, Dr. Einhorn, an oncologist
specializing in testicular cancer at Mayo, and a number of journal articles I
found using PubMed and Google Scholar.
As of this moment, I’m currently leaning strongly toward not
having the surgery, though I still have not broken this news to my oncologist
(for some reason, the thought of doing so makes me very nervous). This means I
won’t know for sure whether or not I am officially “in remission” for a while;
however, it doesn’t mean much to my overall odds (basically, I have 10-20%
chance of relapse within the first year, regardless of whether or not I have
the surgery; I would just know sooner if I have the surgery compared to if I
don’t).
The scene: Brendan is laying in his boxer shorts on the
couch, eating baby carrots out of the bag and watching Camera Obscura videos
(http://youtu.be/Who4OL08iR8) on YouTube. He dozes off, and suddenly finds
himself sitting near a tree next to a small brook. Excitedly, he looks around
for sad-looking (but fairly cute) Scottish girl-leader-singers-of-twee-bands,
as he thinks this must be one of *those* dreams. Unfortunately, it isn’t, and
he soon realizes that he has dreamt himself into a scene from the Phaedrus. He turns around and, sure enough, there
sits Socrates, who looks sort of like a 70-year-old version of Matthew Kramer
(i.e., short and sort of ugly).
Socrates:
Oh, good, Brendan, you’ve finally awoken. It looks like you dozed off in
the middle of our dialogue. Can you remember what we talking about?
Brendan: Not
really, though my bet is that it had something to with the terribleness of
rhetoric and the awesomeness that is a life dedicated to philosophy. Actually,
though, I was wondering if you could help me with a problem. I’ve been trying
to decide all week whether or not I should have a bilateral pulmonary
resection, and I’ve become very confused.
Socrates: I’ve
never heard of that. Can you tell me more about it?
Brendan: Well, I
just finished undergoing chemotherapy for metastatic testicular cancer, and my
blood markers (LDH, AFP, and HCG) have all returned to normal levels. However,
a CT scan of my lungs revealed two small (< 2 cm) masses on the outside of
my left lung and one extremely small tumor on the right lung. These masses
might be cancerous, or they might not be. The surgery would involve cutting me
open, and taking all the masses out.
Socrates: What’s
the point of doing the surgery?
Brendan: Well, my
oncologist and surgeon told me that the only point was to check and see if the
masses were cancerous. If they were cancerous, then I would need to get more
chemotherapy. An oncologist from the Mayo Clinic told me that an additional
goal of the surgery was to remove any teratoma
(basically, nonmalignant tumor tissue which can grow and cause problems, or
which can mutate back into active cancer), which is frequently found in
residual masses.
Socrates: And how
long would the surgery take?
Brendan: I think
I would have to be in the hospital for about a week, give or take a few days.
And then I’d have to spend another month or two recovering. I’d likely be fully
recovered after three to four months.
Socrates: OK, I
was just testing to see whether you knew what was going on. Obviously, I know
all about bilateral pulmonary resections, have frequently observed them. Your
description has jogged my memory, thought—it was only a matter of my
recollecting.
Brendan: Hah hah,
a joke about the theory of recollection. Was that really appropriate? Or funny?
Socrates: I
thought so. So, what do you propose to do?
Brendan: I think I should get the surgery done,
and have the masses resected.
Socrates: Why do
you think that?
Brendan: My
oncologist told me that this was the best plan.
Socrates: Did he
give you any reason why?
Brendan: He said
they might still be cancerous, and the only way of telling for sure was to completely
take them out. His reasoning was as follows: (1) the masses are so small that a
needle biopsy might miss them and (2) he wouldn’t want to start salvage (i.e.,
second-line) chemotherapy without ensuring that they were cancer.
Socrates: That
reasoning seems a little suspicious to me, even though the conclusion might be
right. I’ve never heard of anyone doing needle biopsies on any testicular
cancer tumors, regardless of size. After all, such biopsies would risk spreading
the cancer, and they would also leave any teratoma in your body, which would be
one of the main reasons for doing the surgery. And since your blood markers are
normal, I don’t think that any sane oncologist would think that you immediately
need salvage chemotherapy (even in the absence of a biopsy), since it’s fairly
unlikely that you actually have active cancer. Salvage chemotherapy would only
be appropriate in the case that a recurrent cancer diagnosis was confirmed.
It sounds to me like your oncologist didn’t really
understand what the point of doing this surgery really was and thus, didn’t
explain it very well to you.
Brendan: Oh, OK.
So maybe I shouldn’t have the surgery?
Socrates: I
wouldn’t jump to that conclusion just yet. I think it’s likely that your
oncologist got the conclusion (“complete resection of all remaining tumors”)
from some sort of standard treatment protocol that was devised by a group of
testicular cancer experts. The oncologist probably just didn’t know the reasons
behind the protocol’s recommendations, and was trying to come up with his best
guess when he was explaining it to you.
Brendan: Whew.
So, I really can trust him. That’s good to hear.
Socrates: Well,
the mere fact that your oncologist got his conclusion from some sort of
standardized protocol doesn’t necessarily mean that it is correct. After all,
standardized treatment protocols are designed to be used by knowledgeable experts
capable of recognizing when the protocol’s recommendations don’t apply, or when
they need to be modified. The fact that the oncologist didn’t seem to know the
whys and wherefores makes me think that he might not know enough about
testicular cancer (or its standard progression) to recognize cases in which the
protocol might need to be modified.
Brendan: Socrates,
I think you’re right about both things. My oncologist does seem to be following
some sort of standardized treatment plan. However, he doesn’t seem especially
knowledgeable about testicular cancer. Among other things, he has told me
demonstrably incorrect things about (1) dosing schedules, (2) protocols for
delaying doses based on white blood cells counts, (3) the evidence supporting
BEP’s current dosing regimen, and lots of other stuff. Given all of this, I’m
not really sure how seriously to take his advice any more, especially in cases
where it seems like some interpretation of the treatment plan is required.
Socrates: OK, so
let’s leave the oncologist aside for the moment. I heard you went to see the
surgeon on Tuesday for a consult. What did he tell you?
Brendan: OK, so
let’s leave the oncologist aside for the moment. When I went to see the surgeon
on Tuesday, he told me that “it was a personal choice” whether to get the
surgery, and that the statistical evidence couldn’t make this decision for me.
He suggested that I could also wait until the results of my next CT scan.
Socrates: What do
you think he meant when he said that the statistical evidence couldn’t make the
decision for you?
Brendan: Well, at
first I thought he was just talking nonsense—after all, surgeons and oncologists
make almost of their treatment recommendations by applying statistical evidence
to particular cases, and I’ve never heard them say that there was any issue
with doing this. To make things more confusing, the surgeon also told me that,
were the masses to have been much bigger than they were (e.g., if they were 1
cm, instead of 2 mm), surgery would definitely have been appropriate.
Socrates: So, the
surgeon told you about a case in which he would have recommended surgery
(presumably on the basis of statistical studies), and then quite noticeably
failed to recommend it for your own case.
Brendan: Yes,
that’s what’s seemed so weird to me. If he didn’t think the surgery was a good
idea, why didn’t he just say so? And why all the weird talk about the importance
of individual choice?
Socrates: Well,
if the surgeon had directly told you that he thought the surgery was
ill-advised, he would have been directly
contradicting the oncologist, which he (as a surgeon) really shouldn’t been
doing, and might have gotten in trouble for.
Brendan: That
makes sense. But then again, why trust a surgeon’s word on it? After all, isn’t
the oncologist is supposed to be the expert?
Socrates: Well,
the surgeon did make a number of concrete, factual claims that you can verify.
For example, he did say that (1) bilateral pulmonary resection is fairly risky
and (2) very small masses aren’t all that likely to be cancerous. You can check
these things by using Pubmed and Google Scholar.
Brendan: [Spends
a few hours on the computer:] OK, it sounds like the surgeon was right. For masses
of these sizes, there’s only ~15% chance that they are cancerous, a ~40% chance
they have teratoma, and ~55% chance they are necrosis (or dead scar tissue).
The chances are not independent—i.e., it’s likely that either all of the tumors
are cancerous, or that none is. So, the chance of cancer doesn’t go up (too
much) just because I have three small tumors instead of a single small tumor.
The surgery also
sounds like it is fairly dangerous—there is a 13% chance of complications,
including a non-negligible chance (1-2% chance) of death. So maybe the surgeon
was right.
Socrates: Well,
let’s consider this in a little more detail. So, what would the dangers be of
waiting?
Brendan: It
sounds like there are two sorts of things that the surgery is meant to do: (1)
to diagnose whether there is any remaining cancer so that chemotherapy can be
given and (2) to remove any large chunks of teratoma, on the off chance they
might start growing and screw things up. A three-month really wouldn’t make
much difference to the teratoma thing, since these grow relatively slowly. If
cancer was found, it would allow for chemotherapy to get started right away.
Socrates: OK, so
it sounds like the three month wait probably wouldn’t make much difference. But
why wait at all? After all, it’s perfectly possible that you’ll eventually have
to do this surgery later on, especially if any of the masses increase in size.
And doing it now would give you the best chance of catching any cancer early
on.
Brendan: Yes,
that’s right—it’s perfectly possible I’ll have to do this surgery later on,
even though I’m choosing to do it now. However, it’s also possible that the
masses will shrink away, and I won’t have to do it. Plus, I’m not sure I would
want to do a surgery of this scale at Carle hospital; if I wait, I might be
able to do this at Mayo, where they have specialists dedicated to doing this
sort of surgery.
Socrates: OK, so
you’ve talked to the surgeon. What is your feeling about getting the surgery?
Brendan: I think
that I should definitely not have it.
Socrates: Given
the gravity of the situation, I’m not sure that it is a good idea to stop here.
So far, you’ve only talked to an oncologist of debatable competence and a
surgeon, who doesn’t even claim to be
competent at medical oncology, regardless of how much he might know about the
surgery in question. Is there anyone else you can ask?
Brendan: I guess
I can e-mail the people at Indiana University and Mayo Clinic, which are the
two nearest cancer research centers. There’s no guarantee that they will e-mail
me back, though. After all, MDs are notoriously wary of disagreeing with a
colleague, especially when they don’t have all of the diagnostic information in
front of them.
Socrates: Well,
that’s true, but the question you are asking isn’t really of diagnosis, right?
I bet Indiana and Mayo have policies regarding when to resect tumors and when
not to resect them. The oncologists wouldn’t be braking any rules of
professional ethics by telling you what these policies are.
Brendan: It turns
out you were right, Socrates. Both Mayo and IU responded quickly to my emails.
Mayo was pretty cagey, but they suggested that they (as a matter of policy),
always resect remaining masses for nonseminatomous germ cell tumors (the type
of cancer I have; if I had seminatomous germ cell tumors, Mayo would not resect
the masses). Unlike my oncologist, it seems like part of the reason for this
was to get rid of teratoma. They didn’t comment on the surgical risk, however,
which makes me wonder whether they might occasionally wait to resect.
Indiana University (in the form of Dr. Einhorn) was much
more direct: he stated that IU would NEVER (the capital letters are his) do surgery in a case like mine, but would instead
for future CT scans to see how the masses changed over time.
Socrates: OK, so
it sounds like different places have different treatment guidelines. What do
you know about your particular case that might make a difference?
Brendan: Well, it
sounds like the fact that the remaining masses are small is a good thing, as
small masses are significantly less likely to be cancerous than large ones. The
fact that the tumors shrunk quite a bit during chemotherapy is also a good
sign, and this makes it more likely that what remains is dead tissue [this is
another issue my oncologist got backwards; he thought that tumor shrinkage made
the case for removal stronger.] However, certain aspects of my case make it somewhat
likely that the remaining masses contain teratoma: for example, my original
tumor was 50% teratoma, and my LDH was fairly normal (so far as I can tell,
this is relevant because it means that the tumor was growing somewhat slowly,
which means there was a decent proportion of teratoma in it).
In any case, it seems like there is a decent chance (say,
over 50%) that the remaining masses are necrotic, which means they are
perfectly harmless. And if they aren’t necrotic, they are probably teratoma,
which might (or might not) be harmless, but which could certainly be removed
later if they started to grow and cause problems. There’s really only a 10-20%
they are cancerous and, if they are, this will show up pretty quickly when my
blood markers start rising or my CT scans show masses start increasing in size.
Socrates: OK, so it sounds like you have a relatively
low risk of having cancer, when compared to the average person for whom these
guidelines were formulated? What do you
know about the surgery?
Brendan: The surgery is fairly high risk, especially
when compared to the "typical" post-testicular-cancer surgeries,
which often involve either (1) only the abdomen or (2) only a single lung.
There's a fairly high risk of complications with the bilateral lung surgery, to
the point where even the advocates of "cut out of everything" have
been considering special protocols for this kind of surgery--i.e., there are
recent studies on the possibility of doing one lung at a time, to minimize the
risks involved with doing both lungs. I'm not sure any of these have caught on,
but it definitely looks like this has been on peoples' minds.
Socrates: So, the surgery is fairly risky. Still,
Mayo would probably recommend you do this surgery, even given the risks. Is
there anything you can say in defense of you desire not to do the surgery right
now?
Brendan: Hmm. I don't know. Carle's not Mayo?
Socrates: And why would that make a difference?
Brendan: There's lot of data showing the risk of
surgical complications for a given procedure at a given hospital is inversely
related to the frequency with which that procedure is performed at that
hospital. So, Mayo (which performs a lot of these procedures) would likely have
better success with them than Carle (which doesn't do a lot of these
procedures). So, it's likely that doing this surgery at Carle might be more
risky than the general statistics let on, and doing the surgery at Mayo would
be less risky than the general statistics suggest.
Socrates: That's right. And from what we've
established so far, it seems like the risks of undergoing this surgery at a
place like IU or Mayo (which do lots of the surgeries) are, at best, evenly
balanced with the benefits. When we factor in the fact that this surgery would
be performed at a relatively small regional hospital, what does this do to the
risk calculus?
Brendan: Since it's more risky to do the surgery than
normal, it suggests that, in my particular case, it might be better to wait to
do the surgery, at least until I have some indication of whether it is really
needed. For example, I should certainly do the surgery if the masses started to
increase in size. Until then, though, it might be best to wait and see.
Socrates: That seems like a reasonable conclusion,
given everything we've said here. However, you do realize that you could be
wrong, and that failing to do the surgery now might come back and bite you
later. And, if this happens, it's likely that you oncologist will (perhaps
nicely, perhaps not) remind you that he had recommended that you undergo this
surgery.
Brendan: Yes, I know. That's part of what makes me so
nervous about the whole thing. For some reason, I don't like the idea of a (1)
having my cancer recur and (2) thinking that there is something I could have
done to prevent this from happening.
Socrates: I can see how that would be a stressful
experience, and it's certainly a possibility. However, you also need to
remember that choosing to do surgery would carry similar risks. For example,
it's perfectly possible that they could do the surgery, find nothing but
necrosis, and that you nevertheless experience severe surgical complications.
You'd probably feel pretty similarly in this case--you'd think "if only
I'd chosen not to do the surgery." Of course, your oncologist would tell
you that you did the right thing, but I'm not sure how much that sort of thing
should really count for, given the sort of thing we are talking about. And it's
not as if you are choosing contrary to what the evidence says--this really does
seem to be a case in which the experts genuinely disagree on what ought to be
done.
Brendan: I guess that's worth something, and I'll try
to keep that in mind. I think it's getting a little cold out, though, and I'm
getting a little tired. Should we head back to Athens?
Socrates: I think there's probably more to be said
about this issue, but I agree that it's getting a little late in the afternoon,
so maybe it's best to wrap and head home. I hear Camera Obscura is performing
near the Parthenon tonight, and that there will be an aftershow party
restricted to card-carrying philosophers. Maybe we can still get there in time
if we leave now.
At this point, Brendan wakes up. He never does get to attend the afterparty, though he is fairly sure that it rocked.
